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Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement
3 December 2020It’s a new month – which means the latest Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data will be released at 1:30 PM London time on Friday.
Why is the announcement important?
Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rates cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.
Expectations
In October, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 638k, higher than analyst predictions of 600k. The unemployment rate declined to 6.9% from 7.7%. Most significant job gains were in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
Analysts are expecting 481k jobs added in November. The unemployment rate is expected to drop by 0.1% to 6.8%.
Non-Farm Payroll numbers in 2020
October: 638k
September: 661k
August: 1,371k
July: 1,763k
June: 4,800k
May: 2,509k
April: -20,500k
March: -701k
February: 273k
January: 225k
The unemployment rates in 2020
October: 6.9%
September: 7.9%
August: 8.4%
July: 10.2%
June: 11.1%
May: 13.3%
April: 14.7%
March: 4.4%
February: 3.5%
January: 3.6%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
All eyes on the last US jobs report of 2020.
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