EN
Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement
7 January 2021It’s a new month and a new year – which means the latest Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data will be released at 1:30 PM London time on Friday. It has been a turbulent week in the United States with a riot causing havoc in Washington D.C. This will be the last jobs report during President Donald Trump’s era with President-Elect Joe Biden set to be inaugurated on the 20th of January.
Why is the announcement important?
Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.
Expectations
In November, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 245k, lower than analyst predictions of 481k. The unemployment rate declined to 6.7% from 6.9%, as per forecast. Most significant job gains were in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. Employment declined in government and retail trade.
Analysts are expecting 71k jobs added in December. The unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1% to 6.8%.
Non-Farm Payroll numbers in 2020
November: 245k
October: 638k
September: 661k
August: 1,371k
July: 1,763k
June: 4,800k
May: 2,509k
April: -20,500k
March: -701k
February: 273k
January: 225k
The unemployment rates in 2020
November: 6.7%
October: 6.9%
September: 7.9%
August: 8.4%
July: 10.2%
June: 11.1%
May: 13.3%
April: 14.7%
March: 4.4%
February: 3.5%
January: 3.6%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
All eyes on the first US jobs report of 2021.
Disclaimer: Articles are from Emmett Trades analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by Emmett Trades. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. If the advice relates to acquiring a particular financial product, you should obtain and consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and Financial Services Guide (FSG) for that product before making any decisions.
Next Article
Crude Oil – Saudi Production Cuts Spark Rally
USOIL- Hourly USOIL- It's been an impressive start to the year for Crude Oil prices so far, with prices steadily rising to over $50 per barrel and returning to pre-pandemic levels. It would seem many underestimated such a speedy recovery. Still, with the general uptick in global commodity prices and a pledge from Saudi Arabia to cut production ...
Previous Article
EURUSD – Goldman’s 1.28 Estimate Matches P&F Analysis
EURUSD- Point & Figure EURUSD- The overall weakness of the US Dollar continues to dominate much of the FX markets at this stage. Despite a slig...